The U.S. government has begun accepting applications for refunds tied to tariffs imposed in 2025, following a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that the tariffs were unconstitutional. The program could return as much as $166 billion to U.S. importers, creating what restructuring professionals describe as a wholly new and untested source of value. While U.S. Customs and Border Protection estimates refunds will be processed within 60–90 days, the scale, complexity, and administrative demands of the program raise significant uncertainty around timing and recoverability.
These uncertainties are particularly consequential in bankruptcy and restructuring contexts. Potential refunds could rival—or exceed—the size of assets in the largest historical bankruptcies, positioning them as potential “fulcrum” assets in reorganizations. However, experts caution that payment delays, evolving tariff rules, unresolved legal challenges, and questions around eligibility materially complicate valuation. As a result, hedge funds and distressed investors have moved quickly to acquire refund claims at a discount, effectively creating a new asset class.
In the recent article, published in Law360, Joseph Berman, Director, emphasized that tariff refunds should be approached conservatively in restructuring scenarios. He noted that refunds lack precedent, may be delayed for months—or longer—and are subject to both legal and operational risk. Berman advised treating refunds as contingent assets, modeled across multiple recovery scenarios, and cautioned that meaningful budgeting or plan distributions will remain theoretical until refunds begin flowing with consistency.
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